← margin_compression_severe (all companies) · AREB (all signals) · all methodology
margin_compression_severe on AMERICAN REBEL HOLDINGS INC (AREB)
SIC 3490 — Miscellaneous Fabricated Metal Products · CIK 1648087 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on AREB
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-04-09 | 2025-04-09 | +29.93% | +18.10% | -45.16% | -77.06% | -100.00% |
| FY2022 | 2023-04-14 | 2023-04-14 | -7.41% | -12.96% | -11.73% | -45.43% | -92.47% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-31 | 2022-03-31 | +14.44% | +5.56% | -33.33% | -56.39% | -92.39% |
| FY2020 | 2021-05-24 | 2022-02-07 | +18.55% | +27.15% | -47.96% | -37.56% | -90.00% |
| FY2019 | 2020-05-18 | 2022-02-07 | +18.55% | +27.15% | -47.96% | -37.56% | -90.00% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.