← margin_compression_severe (all companies) · BAX (all signals) · all methodology
margin_compression_severe on BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC (BAX)
SIC 3841 — Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus · CIK 10456 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on BAX
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-12 | 2026-02-12 | +5.77% | +15.34% | -6.96% | — | — |
| FY2013 | 2014-02-21 | 2014-02-21 | +0.27% | +0.30% | -1.58% | +8.52% | +1.90% |
| FY2010 | 2011-02-23 | 2011-02-23 | -0.08% | +0.52% | +1.95% | +17.12% | +12.01% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.