← margin_compression_severe (all companies) · BYRN (all signals) · all methodology
margin_compression_severe on Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN)
SIC 3690 — Miscellaneous Electrical Machinery, Equipment & Supplies · CIK 1354866 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on BYRN
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 2020-05-18 | 2020-05-18 | -4.55% | -9.09% | +236.36% | +259.09% | +512.73% |
| FY2018 | 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-01 | +0.00% | +0.00% | +7.14% | +7.14% | +57.14% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-02-29 | +0.00% | +0.00% | +17.39% | +13.04% | -39.13% |
| FY2014 | 2015-10-20 | 2015-10-20 | +0.00% | -9.68% | -6.45% | -9.68% | -35.48% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.