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margin_compression_severe on Healthier Choices Management Corp. (HCMC)
SIC 2100 — Tobacco Products · CIK 844856 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on HCMC
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-04-14 | 2025-04-14 | +0.00% | +0.00% | +100.00% | +100.00% | +100.00% |
| FY2023 | 2024-03-27 | 2024-03-27 | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% |
| FY2019 | 2020-05-13 | 2020-05-13 | -50.00% | -50.00% | +0.00% | -50.00% | +1700.00% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-27 | 2017-03-27 | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-31 | 2015-03-31 | +0.00% | -14.42% | -28.84% | -67.27% | -100.00% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-29 | 2013-04-01 | +3.64% | -10.00% | -27.27% | +80.00% | +140.17% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.