← margin_compression_severe (all companies) · LCTX (all signals) · all methodology
margin_compression_severe on Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (LCTX)
SIC 2836 — Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · CIK 876343 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on LCTX
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 2022-03-10 | 2022-03-10 | -4.29% | -2.86% | +0.71% | +0.71% | +1.43% |
| FY2020 | 2021-03-11 | 2021-03-11 | +5.98% | +1.28% | +10.26% | +21.79% | -40.17% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-12 | 2020-03-12 | +10.29% | +16.18% | +13.24% | +47.06% | +264.71% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-17 | -3.36% | -5.88% | -20.45% | -15.13% | +22.97% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-18 | 2013-03-18 | -8.06% | -12.67% | -19.82% | -8.29% | -20.51% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.