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margin_compression_severe on SemiLEDs Corp (LEDS)
SIC 3674 — Semiconductors & Related Devices · CIK 1333822 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on LEDS
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-28 | -14.36% | -6.93% | -19.80% | -24.75% | — |
| FY2018 | 2018-11-26 | 2018-11-26 | -1.86% | -1.59% | -32.89% | -16.45% | -38.99% |
| FY2016 | 2016-11-21 | 2016-11-21 | +35.37% | +12.23% | +4.52% | -12.23% | +51.33% |
| FY2013 | 2013-11-26 | 2013-11-26 | +4.17% | +2.08% | -3.13% | +32.29% | -48.96% |
| FY2012 | 2012-12-13 | 2012-12-13 | -1.01% | +4.04% | -29.29% | +23.23% | -1.01% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.