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margin_compression_severe on MOSAIC CO (MOS)
SIC 2870 — Agricultural Chemicals · CIK 1285785 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on MOS
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-02-22 | 2024-02-22 | -2.30% | -3.29% | +0.11% | -4.35% | -18.45% |
| FY2019 | 2020-02-20 | 2020-02-20 | +3.90% | -10.40% | -55.36% | -45.26% | +59.33% |
| FY2016 | 2017-02-15 | 2017-02-15 | -1.87% | -5.77% | -13.43% | -31.58% | -21.58% |
| FY2014 | 2015-02-17 | 2015-02-17 | +1.27% | +2.27% | -8.65% | -12.26% | -50.06% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.