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margin_compression_severe on MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU)
SIC 3674 — Semiconductors & Related Devices · CIK 723125 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on MU
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2023-10-06 | 2023-10-06 | -0.69% | -1.07% | +3.74% | +17.74% | +47.20% |
| FY2020 | 2020-10-19 | 2020-10-19 | +1.71% | -0.93% | +17.54% | +54.47% | +28.57% |
| FY2019 | 2019-10-17 | 2019-10-17 | -4.46% | +3.52% | +2.86% | +26.42% | +13.43% |
| FY2016 | 2016-10-28 | 2016-10-28 | -0.23% | -3.02% | +16.22% | +36.74% | +142.15% |
| FY2012 | 2012-10-29 | 2012-10-31 | +6.63% | +8.84% | +8.84% | +39.59% | +225.60% |
| FY2011 | 2011-10-25 | 2011-10-25 | -0.36% | -3.64% | +11.11% | +43.35% | -5.83% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.