← margin_compression_severe (all companies) · NTRP (all signals) · all methodology
margin_compression_severe on NextTrip, Inc. (NTRP)
SIC 4700 — Transportation Services · CIK 788611 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on NTRP
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 2023-03-30 | 2023-03-30 | -9.60% | +0.68% | -13.48% | -27.51% | -57.83% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-24 | +8.30% | +4.15% | -15.85% | +1.89% | +63.02% |
| FY2018 | 2019-04-01 | 2019-04-01 | -4.08% | -2.04% | +2.72% | -8.84% | -81.22% |
| FY2017 | 2018-04-17 | 2018-04-17 | +1.65% | -5.16% | +15.79% | -30.58% | +21.49% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-31 | 2017-03-31 | +1.29% | +6.11% | -6.11% | -28.94% | -54.34% |
| FY2011 | 2012-04-16 | 2012-04-16 | -5.88% | +2.35% | +10.59% | +8.24% | +194.12% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.