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margin_compression_severe on PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA, INC. (PACB)
SIC 3826 — Laboratory Analytical Instruments · CIK 1299130 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on PACB
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-02-28 | 2024-02-28 | -0.72% | -24.96% | -33.21% | -65.17% | -76.30% |
| FY2022 | 2023-02-28 | 2023-02-28 | -3.41% | -0.66% | +0.55% | +31.50% | -39.10% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-26 | 2019-02-26 | -0.95% | +0.27% | -1.22% | -5.43% | -54.08% |
| FY2017 | 2018-02-26 | 2018-02-26 | -3.15% | -9.06% | -9.45% | +2.76% | +187.01% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-06 | 2017-03-06 | -3.78% | -6.77% | +2.99% | -34.26% | -51.59% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-15 | 2013-03-15 | -2.64% | +4.41% | -7.05% | +20.26% | +170.48% |
| FY2011 | 2012-03-01 | 2012-03-01 | -9.23% | -7.73% | -15.46% | -35.16% | -44.39% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.