← margin_compression_severe (all companies) · RCAT (all signals) · all methodology
margin_compression_severe on Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT)
SIC 7372 — Services-Prepackaged Software · CIK 748268 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on RCAT
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-19 | -12.45% | -7.50% | -15.96% | — | — |
| FY2023 | 2023-07-27 | 2023-07-27 | -8.93% | -13.04% | -15.18% | -13.39% | +97.32% |
| FY2022 | 2022-08-15 | 2022-08-15 | -1.46% | +7.32% | +3.90% | -48.29% | -50.73% |
| FY2018 | 2019-04-01 | 2019-04-01 | +0.00% | +200.00% | +100.00% | +100.00% | -33.33% |
| FY2017 | 2018-04-09 | 2018-04-09 | -25.00% | -25.00% | -25.00% | -50.00% | -50.00% |
| FY2015 | 2016-04-13 | 2016-04-13 | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | -27.50% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-31 | 2015-03-31 | +10.00% | +30.00% | -5.00% | -20.00% | -60.00% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-17 | +0.00% | +0.00% | +150.00% | +25.00% | -76.67% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.