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margin_compression_severe on Singularity Future Technology Ltd. (SGLY)
SIC 4731 — Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo · CIK 1422892 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on SGLY
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2024-10-15 | 2024-10-15 | +4.61% | +11.84% | +15.79% | +57.24% | -51.97% |
| FY2022 | 2023-03-06 | 2023-03-06 | +1.69% | -3.39% | +20.34% | -13.56% | -60.51% |
| FY2021 | 2021-09-29 | 2021-09-29 | +0.88% | +8.81% | +19.82% | +70.04% | +15.42% |
| FY2019 | 2019-09-30 | 2019-09-30 | -7.89% | -7.89% | +5.26% | -38.16% | -58.16% |
| FY2018 | 2018-09-28 | 2018-09-28 | -4.27% | -7.69% | -1.71% | -32.48% | -40.17% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.