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margin_compression_severe on UR-ENERGY INC (URG)
SIC 1040 — Gold and Silver Ores · CIK 1375205 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on URG
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-04-11 | 2025-04-11 | -2.94% | -2.94% | +5.88% | +64.71% | +142.65% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-09 | 2022-03-09 | -1.08% | -15.14% | -10.27% | -29.19% | -43.78% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-26 | 2021-02-26 | -1.77% | -11.50% | +8.85% | +29.20% | +22.12% |
| FY2019 | 2020-02-28 | 2020-02-28 | +4.55% | +13.64% | -20.45% | +25.00% | +152.27% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-02 | 2018-03-02 | +0.00% | -1.52% | -9.09% | +6.06% | +7.58% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-26 | 2016-02-26 | +0.00% | +13.04% | +8.70% | +2.17% | +73.91% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-02 | 2015-03-02 | +4.55% | +15.91% | +12.50% | +4.55% | -44.32% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.