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positive_eps_streak on ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD. (ACGL)

SIC 6331 — Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance · CIK 947484 · default direction: long

Definition

Fires on companies with consecutive years of positive earnings — quality compounder candidates. Surfaces stable franchises with earnings durability, not speculative growth.

Every time the signal fired on ACGL

FYFiling dateEvent date1d5d20d60d252d
FY20252026-02-262026-02-26+0.50%-2.59%-5.55%
FY20242025-02-272025-02-27+0.88%-0.78%+5.26%-0.03%+9.73%
FY20232024-02-232024-02-23-0.01%-0.14%+3.88%+14.76%+7.91%
FY20222023-02-242023-02-24+0.06%+3.08%-4.51%+6.26%+26.10%
FY20212022-02-252022-02-25-0.90%-3.20%+0.27%-2.59%+47.24%
FY20202021-02-262021-02-26+0.25%+1.54%+8.26%+11.47%+32.72%
FY20192020-02-282020-02-28+5.10%+0.67%-28.10%-27.31%-11.18%
FY20182019-02-282019-02-28+0.61%-1.32%-2.05%+5.30%+23.75%
FY20172018-02-282018-02-28-2.26%+1.61%-2.77%-10.95%+11.75%
FY20162017-03-012017-03-01-1.18%-1.87%-1.36%-0.72%-9.90%
FY20152016-02-262016-02-26-0.38%+1.74%+2.93%+3.71%+37.98%
FY20142015-02-272015-02-27+0.81%+1.20%+4.53%+8.32%+14.84%
FY20132014-03-032014-03-03+1.04%+2.86%+3.41%+2.30%+6.90%
FY20122013-03-012013-03-01-0.24%+2.26%+6.16%+4.50%+12.36%
FY20112012-02-292012-02-29+1.46%-0.97%-0.05%+4.24%+33.33%

Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.

Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)

Horizonn eventsGross stock retHit rateTrade dirNet PnLCost (bps)r/σ net
1d21,256+0.05%+49.53%long-0.16%22-0.04
5d21,258+0.10%+50.10%long-0.10%22-0.00
20d21,218-0.80%+49.80%long-1.03%22-0.04
60d19,852+1.64%+54.15%long+1.48%22+0.04
252d19,501+13.65%+64.44%long+13.47%22+0.27

Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See positive_eps_streak methodology for the full audit.


Data: /api/company/947484/financials