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positive_eps_streak on Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)

SIC 2070 — Fats & Oils · CIK 7084 · default direction: long

Definition

Fires on companies with consecutive years of positive earnings — quality compounder candidates. Surfaces stable franchises with earnings durability, not speculative growth.

Every time the signal fired on ADM

FYFiling dateEvent date1d5d20d60d252d
FY20252026-02-172026-02-17-1.53%-0.80%+5.18%
FY20242025-02-202025-02-20+3.52%+0.09%-0.06%+7.69%+50.54%
FY20232024-11-182024-11-18+0.53%+1.52%-1.39%-11.10%+15.15%
FY20222023-02-142023-02-14-0.05%-0.21%-6.08%-8.41%-31.78%
FY20212022-02-172022-02-17-0.34%+2.94%+9.56%+13.74%+8.23%
FY20202021-02-182021-02-18+0.54%+2.74%+3.21%+21.21%+40.86%
FY20192020-02-182020-02-18-1.08%-9.04%-20.67%-23.87%+29.95%
FY20182019-02-192019-02-19+0.29%+1.12%+2.77%-1.23%+8.70%
FY20172018-02-162018-02-16-1.30%-2.23%-0.16%+2.97%+0.27%
FY20162017-02-172017-02-17+0.27%+1.52%+0.36%-5.53%-1.73%
FY20152016-02-192016-02-19+3.49%+6.55%+16.60%+16.24%+40.94%
FY20142015-02-202015-02-20+0.23%-0.56%-2.49%+10.34%-27.85%
FY20132014-02-262014-02-26-1.24%+0.69%+5.72%+8.66%+20.21%
FY20122012-08-272012-08-27-0.19%+1.74%+4.69%+1.92%+34.93%
FY20112011-08-252011-08-25+0.54%+2.21%-8.90%+5.14%-2.31%

Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.

Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)

Horizonn eventsGross stock retHit rateTrade dirNet PnLCost (bps)r/σ net
1d21,256+0.05%+49.53%long-0.16%22-0.04
5d21,258+0.10%+50.10%long-0.10%22-0.00
20d21,218-0.80%+49.80%long-1.03%22-0.04
60d19,852+1.64%+54.15%long+1.48%22+0.04
252d19,501+13.65%+64.44%long+13.47%22+0.27

Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See positive_eps_streak methodology for the full audit.


Data: /api/company/7084/financials