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positive_eps_streak on Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)

SIC 6411 — Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · CIK 354190 · default direction: long

Definition

Fires on companies with consecutive years of positive earnings — quality compounder candidates. Surfaces stable franchises with earnings durability, not speculative growth.

Every time the signal fired on AJG

FYFiling dateEvent date1d5d20d60d252d
FY20252026-02-172026-02-17+0.23%+0.93%-1.96%
FY20242025-02-182025-02-18+0.32%+1.69%+1.22%+1.22%-32.49%
FY20232024-02-092024-02-09-1.35%+0.16%+6.07%+2.84%+37.12%
FY20222023-02-102023-02-10+0.08%-3.31%-7.47%+11.10%+22.41%
FY20212022-02-182022-02-18-0.36%+2.53%+8.35%+6.75%+22.18%
FY20202021-02-082021-02-08-0.65%-0.01%+6.42%+25.80%+34.68%
FY20192020-02-072020-02-07+1.76%+4.03%-9.90%-20.44%+14.07%
FY20182019-02-082019-02-08+1.34%+1.28%+0.80%+4.91%+38.15%
FY20172018-02-122018-02-12+1.16%+4.68%+8.28%+4.32%+22.94%
FY20162017-02-132017-02-13+0.02%+1.08%+3.05%+0.56%+23.80%
FY20152016-02-102016-02-10-0.47%+4.53%+10.27%+24.75%+48.72%
FY20142015-02-132015-02-13+1.05%+0.78%+0.67%+1.41%-15.15%
FY20132014-02-072014-02-07-0.15%+0.64%+5.10%-1.32%+4.69%
FY20122013-02-082013-02-08-0.24%+2.37%+3.33%+16.91%+23.15%
FY20112012-02-142012-02-14-1.06%-1.91%+2.02%+3.23%+15.14%

Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.

Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)

Horizonn eventsGross stock retHit rateTrade dirNet PnLCost (bps)r/σ net
1d21,256+0.05%+49.53%long-0.16%22-0.04
5d21,258+0.10%+50.10%long-0.10%22-0.00
20d21,218-0.80%+49.80%long-1.03%22-0.04
60d19,852+1.64%+54.15%long+1.48%22+0.04
252d19,501+13.65%+64.44%long+13.47%22+0.27

Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See positive_eps_streak methodology for the full audit.


Data: /api/company/354190/financials