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positive_eps_streak on ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP (ARLP)
SIC 1221 — Bituminous Coal & Lignite Surface Mining · CIK 1086600 · default direction: long
Definition
Fires on companies with consecutive years of positive earnings — quality compounder candidates. Surfaces stable franchises with earnings durability, not speculative growth.
Every time the signal fired on ARLP
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-26 | 2026-02-26 | -0.30% | +1.20% | +8.69% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-02-27 | 2025-02-27 | -2.16% | -7.46% | -0.78% | +0.75% | +10.99% |
| FY2023 | 2024-02-23 | 2024-02-23 | -0.53% | -1.00% | +3.74% | +25.06% | +57.98% |
| FY2019 | 2020-02-20 | 2020-02-20 | +1.75% | -14.96% | -27.22% | -61.73% | -15.09% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-22 | 2019-02-22 | -0.10% | +1.84% | +6.04% | -0.61% | -55.23% |
| FY2017 | 2018-02-23 | 2018-02-23 | +1.12% | +0.56% | -0.84% | +4.99% | +21.07% |
| FY2016 | 2017-02-24 | 2017-02-24 | +0.43% | -3.62% | -10.00% | -3.91% | -15.60% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-26 | 2016-02-26 | +2.74% | +21.92% | +12.13% | +49.13% | +152.51% |
| FY2014 | 2015-02-27 | 2015-02-27 | -2.68% | -5.89% | -18.99% | -24.31% | -69.80% |
| FY2013 | 2014-02-28 | 2014-02-28 | +0.26% | -1.09% | -3.90% | +5.50% | -5.51% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-01 | 2013-03-01 | +1.00% | -0.67% | +1.27% | +24.11% | +46.17% |
| FY2011 | 2012-02-28 | 2012-02-28 | +0.52% | -1.97% | -6.47% | -16.77% | -5.83% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 21,256 | +0.05% | +49.53% | long | -0.16% | 22 | -0.04 |
| 5d | 21,258 | +0.10% | +50.10% | long | -0.10% | 22 | -0.00 |
| 20d | 21,218 | -0.80% | +49.80% | long | -1.03% | 22 | -0.04 |
| 60d | 19,852 | +1.64% | +54.15% | long | +1.48% | 22 | +0.04 |
| 252d | 19,501 | +13.65% | +64.44% | long | +13.47% | 22 | +0.27 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See positive_eps_streak methodology for the full audit.