← positive_eps_streak (all companies) · HOG (all signals) · all methodology
positive_eps_streak on HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (HOG)
SIC 3751 — Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts · CIK 793952 · default direction: long
Definition
Fires on companies with consecutive years of positive earnings — quality compounder candidates. Surfaces stable franchises with earnings durability, not speculative growth.
Every time the signal fired on HOG
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-26 | 2026-02-26 | -2.12% | +4.85% | +7.10% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-02-26 | 2025-02-26 | +0.19% | -3.98% | -0.77% | -5.35% | -29.71% |
| FY2023 | 2024-02-23 | 2024-02-23 | -0.03% | -0.64% | +18.96% | -3.98% | -26.92% |
| FY2022 | 2023-02-24 | 2023-02-24 | +1.00% | +1.96% | -23.27% | -30.28% | -21.19% |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-25 | 2022-02-25 | +1.13% | -4.63% | -5.46% | -20.84% | +17.82% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-23 | 2021-02-23 | +3.97% | +0.51% | -5.29% | +36.54% | +14.72% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-02-28 | +2.05% | +0.92% | -3.03% | -6.10% | -14.44% |
| FY2017 | 2018-02-21 | 2018-02-21 | +0.80% | -1.99% | -6.52% | -8.06% | -17.61% |
| FY2016 | 2017-02-21 | 2017-02-21 | +0.74% | -1.31% | +6.02% | -7.25% | -16.53% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-18 | 2016-02-18 | +0.94% | +4.11% | +17.11% | +9.49% | +39.27% |
| FY2014 | 2015-02-19 | 2015-02-19 | +0.17% | +0.74% | -3.46% | -12.12% | -31.91% |
| FY2013 | 2014-02-20 | 2014-02-20 | +0.02% | +1.69% | +5.69% | +11.97% | +0.42% |
| FY2012 | 2013-02-22 | 2013-02-22 | -1.09% | +1.58% | +3.09% | +16.11% | +28.34% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 21,256 | +0.05% | +49.53% | long | -0.16% | 22 | -0.04 |
| 5d | 21,258 | +0.10% | +50.10% | long | -0.10% | 22 | -0.00 |
| 20d | 21,218 | -0.80% | +49.80% | long | -1.03% | 22 | -0.04 |
| 60d | 19,852 | +1.64% | +54.15% | long | +1.48% | 22 | +0.04 |
| 252d | 19,501 | +13.65% | +64.44% | long | +13.47% | 22 | +0.27 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See positive_eps_streak methodology for the full audit.