← profit_to_loss (all companies) · UDN (all signals) · all methodology
profit_to_loss on INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH FUND (UDN)
SIC 6221 — Commodity Contracts Brokers & Dealers · CIK 1383149 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when a previously-profitable company swings to net loss in the current fiscal year. Often early warning of structural problems.
Every time the signal fired on UDN
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-02-26 | 2025-02-26 | -0.64% | +2.10% | +1.87% | +6.71% | +10.51% |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-25 | 2022-02-25 | -0.25% | -2.15% | -2.35% | -5.54% | -8.04% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-02-28 | -0.33% | -1.58% | -1.15% | -1.58% | -2.67% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-14 | 2014-03-14 | +0.15% | -0.81% | -0.04% | -1.76% | -22.28% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 3,667 | -0.22% | +42.21% | short | -0.13% | 35 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 3,667 | +0.28% | +43.50% | short | -0.21% | 36 | -0.01 |
| 20d | 3,616 | +0.23% | +44.16% | short | +0.79% | 40 | +0.04 |
| 60d | 3,386 | +4.37% | +49.00% | short | -3.72% | 51 | -0.06 |
| 252d | 3,297 | +20.41% | +51.05% | short | -17.43% | 102 | -0.13 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See profit_to_loss methodology for the full audit.