← zombie_alert (all companies) · PARR (all signals) · all methodology
zombie_alert on PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC. (PARR)
SIC 1311 — Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · CIK 821483 · default direction: long
Definition
Fires on companies with persistent negative free cash flow but still operating — 'walking dead' candidates. Useful as oversold-bounce flag.
Every time the signal fired on PARR
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-02-28 | 2025-02-28 | -8.07% | -8.28% | -0.77% | +56.37% | +218.44% |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-25 | 2022-02-25 | +0.44% | -9.23% | -9.01% | +15.66% | +105.17% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-07 | 2017-03-07 | -0.07% | +4.11% | +7.12% | +13.00% | +17.11% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,085 | +13881.81% | +45.90% | long | -0.60% | 28 | -0.10 |
| 5d | 1,079 | +13913.06% | +46.71% | long | -0.46% | 28 | -0.04 |
| 20d | 1,068 | -0.28% | +46.54% | long | -0.67% | 28 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 991 | +3.27% | +49.65% | long | +2.98% | 28 | +0.07 |
| 252d | 970 | +17.15% | +53.51% | long | +17.86% | 28 | +0.22 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See zombie_alert methodology for the full audit.