← zombie_alert (all companies) · TWI (all signals) · all methodology
zombie_alert on TITAN INTERNATIONAL INC (TWI)
SIC 3312 — Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) · CIK 899751 · default direction: long
Definition
Fires on companies with persistent negative free cash flow but still operating — 'walking dead' candidates. Useful as oversold-bounce flag.
Every time the signal fired on TWI
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 2021-03-04 | 2021-03-04 | -4.30% | +5.41% | +18.06% | +14.13% | +43.24% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-04 | 2020-03-04 | -11.46% | -9.90% | -26.87% | -35.75% | +325.19% |
| FY2017 | 2018-02-23 | 2018-02-23 | -1.06% | -10.39% | -10.88% | -13.25% | -56.50% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-15 | 2017-03-15 | +2.16% | -11.27% | -12.35% | +12.55% | +24.92% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-25 | 2016-02-25 | +14.96% | +44.14% | +35.16% | +45.77% | +230.34% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,085 | +13881.81% | +45.90% | long | -0.60% | 28 | -0.10 |
| 5d | 1,079 | +13913.06% | +46.71% | long | -0.46% | 28 | -0.04 |
| 20d | 1,068 | -0.28% | +46.54% | long | -0.67% | 28 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 991 | +3.27% | +49.65% | long | +2.98% | 28 | +0.07 |
| 252d | 970 | +17.15% | +53.51% | long | +17.86% | 28 | +0.22 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See zombie_alert methodology for the full audit.