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fcf_ni_divergence on FIRST SOLAR, INC. (FSLR)
SIC 3674 — Semiconductors & Related Devices · CIK 1274494 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on FSLR
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-02-27 | 2024-02-27 | +2.94% | +9.70% | +5.63% | +73.63% | -6.08% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-01 | 2022-03-01 | -8.08% | +5.16% | +11.86% | -12.67% | +162.13% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-26 | 2021-02-26 | +4.78% | -9.03% | +5.76% | -6.96% | -12.76% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-22 | 2019-02-22 | -3.65% | -0.60% | -2.46% | +7.52% | -4.69% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-24 | 2016-02-24 | +4.03% | -0.45% | -1.76% | -32.20% | -46.45% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.