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fcf_ni_divergence on PG&E Corp (PCG)
SIC 4931 — Electric & Other Services Combined · CIK 1004980 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on PCG
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-12 | 2026-02-12 | +3.42% | +4.56% | +3.30% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-02-13 | 2025-02-13 | -3.53% | +0.88% | +5.87% | +8.80% | +14.61% |
| FY2023 | 2024-02-22 | 2024-02-22 | +2.28% | +0.24% | -1.32% | +11.78% | -4.04% |
| FY2022 | 2023-02-23 | 2023-02-23 | +3.27% | +3.73% | +0.07% | +8.70% | +7.19% |
| FY2016 | 2017-02-16 | 2017-02-16 | +0.84% | +4.64% | +5.05% | +5.61% | -34.78% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-18 | 2016-02-18 | -0.20% | +4.18% | +5.36% | +6.49% | +16.81% |
| FY2014 | 2015-02-10 | 2015-02-10 | -2.83% | -2.22% | -9.56% | -8.07% | +2.40% |
| FY2013 | 2014-02-11 | 2014-02-11 | +1.67% | +1.86% | +2.69% | +6.16% | +35.17% |
| FY2010 | 2011-02-17 | 2011-02-17 | -0.40% | +0.61% | -5.42% | +1.11% | -2.97% |
| FY2009 | 2010-02-19 | 2010-02-19 | -1.48% | -1.62% | +1.62% | +4.18% | +11.39% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.