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fcf_ni_divergence on Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
SIC 3571 — Electronic Computers · CIK 1375365 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on SMCI
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-02-25 | 2025-02-25 | +12.23% | -14.05% | -10.76% | -8.54% | -29.12% |
| FY2022 | 2022-08-29 | 2022-08-29 | -6.73% | -11.09% | -22.75% | +26.65% | +286.83% |
| FY2020 | 2020-08-31 | 2020-08-31 | -1.17% | -7.59% | -2.15% | +6.21% | +33.41% |
| FY2017 | 2019-05-17 | 2019-05-17 | +0.50% | +0.30% | -9.32% | -14.36% | +22.97% |
| FY2015 | 2015-11-16 | 2015-11-16 | -1.62% | -4.57% | -7.60% | +20.82% | +3.88% |
| FY2014 | 2014-09-15 | 2014-09-15 | +2.13% | +7.65% | -12.03% | +21.90% | +6.63% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.