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fcf_ni_divergence on TETRA TECHNOLOGIES INC (TTI)
SIC 1311 — Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · CIK 844965 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on TTI
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 2023-02-27 | 2023-02-27 | -9.64% | -11.68% | -33.76% | -24.87% | +3.55% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-03 | 2014-03-03 | +3.13% | +3.30% | +8.20% | -3.13% | -51.90% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-05 | 2013-03-05 | +0.57% | +9.05% | +2.38% | +16.29% | +36.76% |
| FY2011 | 2012-02-29 | 2012-02-29 | +1.21% | -0.77% | +3.19% | -25.52% | -3.30% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.