← fcf_turn_negative (all companies) · SMCI (all signals) · all methodology
fcf_turn_negative on Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
SIC 3571 — Electronic Computers · CIK 1375365 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when previously-positive operating cash flow turns negative — the cash equivalent of profit_to_loss, usually more leading.
Every time the signal fired on SMCI
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-02-25 | 2025-02-25 | +12.23% | -14.05% | -10.76% | -8.54% | -29.12% |
| FY2022 | 2022-08-29 | 2022-08-29 | -6.73% | -11.09% | -22.75% | +26.65% | +286.83% |
| FY2020 | 2020-08-31 | 2020-08-31 | -1.17% | -7.59% | -2.15% | +6.21% | +33.41% |
| FY2017 | 2019-05-17 | 2019-05-17 | +0.50% | +0.30% | -9.32% | -14.36% | +22.97% |
| FY2014 | 2014-09-15 | 2014-09-15 | +2.13% | +7.65% | -12.03% | +21.90% | +6.63% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,337 | -0.05% | +42.62% | short | -0.14% | 35 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,337 | +0.06% | +41.98% | short | +0.31% | 36 | +0.02 |
| 20d | 2,312 | -0.77% | +42.08% | short | +1.36% | 40 | +0.08 |
| 60d | 2,192 | +1.98% | +47.45% | short | -1.61% | 51 | -0.05 |
| 252d | 2,148 | +15.62% | +50.33% | short | -16.85% | 103 | -0.17 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_turn_negative methodology for the full audit.