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fcf_turn_positive on Allegiant Travel CO (ALGT)
SIC 4512 — Air Transportation, Scheduled · CIK 1362468 · default direction: long
Definition
Fires on the fiscal year a company first generates positive operating cash flow after a stretch of negative or zero. Inflection from cash-burning to self-funding.
Every time the signal fired on ALGT
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-03 | -9.48% | -19.82% | -25.66% | -18.67% | +32.54% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-01 | 2022-03-01 | +0.43% | -18.16% | -3.67% | -19.39% | -38.06% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-28 | 2019-02-28 | -0.63% | -3.85% | -4.03% | +7.46% | +4.57% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-22 | 2016-02-22 | +1.98% | +3.68% | +10.92% | -9.12% | +11.83% |
| FY2011 | 2012-02-27 | 2012-02-27 | +2.61% | -0.27% | +11.97% | +28.21% | +69.71% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,430 | +0.08% | +47.28% | long | -0.29% | 33 | -0.04 |
| 5d | 2,430 | +2.37% | +47.20% | long | +1.72% | 33 | +0.02 |
| 20d | 2,411 | +2.47% | +46.95% | long | +1.81% | 32 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 2,273 | +4.84% | +48.26% | long | +4.48% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 252d | 2,226 | +19.57% | +53.05% | long | +19.70% | 33 | +0.16 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_turn_positive methodology for the full audit.