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fcf_turn_positive on CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC (CASY)
SIC 5500 — Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations · CIK 726958 · default direction: long
Definition
Fires on the fiscal year a company first generates positive operating cash flow after a stretch of negative or zero. Inflection from cash-burning to self-funding.
Every time the signal fired on CASY
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 2019-06-28 | 2019-06-28 | +1.26% | +1.06% | +3.74% | +6.70% | -4.11% |
| FY2016 | 2016-06-27 | 2016-06-27 | -0.03% | +5.71% | +9.54% | -3.40% | -13.87% |
| FY2014 | 2014-12-10 | 2014-12-10 | +4.01% | +6.12% | +9.77% | +6.09% | +54.13% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,430 | +0.08% | +47.28% | long | -0.29% | 33 | -0.04 |
| 5d | 2,430 | +2.37% | +47.20% | long | +1.72% | 33 | +0.02 |
| 20d | 2,411 | +2.47% | +46.95% | long | +1.81% | 32 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 2,273 | +4.84% | +48.26% | long | +4.48% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 252d | 2,226 | +19.57% | +53.05% | long | +19.70% | 33 | +0.16 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_turn_positive methodology for the full audit.