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fcf_turn_positive on CENTURY ALUMINUM CO (CENX)
SIC 3334 — Primary Production of Aluminum · CIK 949157 · default direction: long
Definition
Fires on the fiscal year a company first generates positive operating cash flow after a stretch of negative or zero. Inflection from cash-burning to self-funding.
Every time the signal fired on CENX
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-03 | +0.96% | +1.21% | +10.90% | — | — |
| FY2023 | 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-15 | +1.74% | +9.62% | +47.18% | +26.78% | +63.60% |
| FY2020 | 2021-03-04 | 2021-03-04 | +1.46% | +16.16% | +5.18% | -17.01% | +73.48% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-16 | 2017-03-16 | -4.34% | -5.21% | -8.06% | +29.78% | +64.53% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-02 | 2015-03-02 | -1.44% | -23.26% | -27.59% | -38.79% | -64.09% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-18 | 2013-03-18 | -1.45% | -3.86% | -19.18% | +15.68% | +57.42% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,430 | +0.08% | +47.28% | long | -0.29% | 33 | -0.04 |
| 5d | 2,430 | +2.37% | +47.20% | long | +1.72% | 33 | +0.02 |
| 20d | 2,411 | +2.47% | +46.95% | long | +1.81% | 32 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 2,273 | +4.84% | +48.26% | long | +4.48% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 252d | 2,226 | +19.57% | +53.05% | long | +19.70% | 33 | +0.16 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_turn_positive methodology for the full audit.