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fcf_turn_positive on NETFLIX INC (NFLX)
SIC 7841 — Services-Video Tape Rental · CIK 1065280 · default direction: long
Definition
Fires on the fiscal year a company first generates positive operating cash flow after a stretch of negative or zero. Inflection from cash-burning to self-funding.
Every time the signal fired on NFLX
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 2023-01-26 | 2023-01-26 | -1.12% | +0.55% | -13.08% | -9.83% | +57.81% |
| FY2020 | 2021-01-28 | 2021-01-28 | -1.15% | +2.52% | +0.05% | -5.25% | -28.20% |
| FY2013 | 2014-02-03 | 2014-02-03 | +0.38% | +6.44% | +12.51% | -20.36% | +12.99% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,430 | +0.08% | +47.28% | long | -0.29% | 33 | -0.04 |
| 5d | 2,430 | +2.37% | +47.20% | long | +1.72% | 33 | +0.02 |
| 20d | 2,411 | +2.47% | +46.95% | long | +1.81% | 32 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 2,273 | +4.84% | +48.26% | long | +4.48% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 252d | 2,226 | +19.57% | +53.05% | long | +19.70% | 33 | +0.16 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_turn_positive methodology for the full audit.