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fcf_turn_positive on PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC. (PARR)
SIC 1311 — Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · CIK 821483 · default direction: long
Definition
Fires on the fiscal year a company first generates positive operating cash flow after a stretch of negative or zero. Inflection from cash-burning to self-funding.
Every time the signal fired on PARR
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-25 | 2026-02-25 | +5.45% | +28.94% | +59.51% | — | — |
| FY2022 | 2023-02-27 | 2023-02-27 | -1.98% | +2.89% | +0.71% | -23.96% | +28.86% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-12 | 2018-03-12 | -0.87% | -4.39% | -2.49% | -2.11% | -7.96% |
| FY2015 | 2016-03-03 | 2016-03-03 | -6.15% | -2.05% | -1.42% | -17.89% | -18.94% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,430 | +0.08% | +47.28% | long | -0.29% | 33 | -0.04 |
| 5d | 2,430 | +2.37% | +47.20% | long | +1.72% | 33 | +0.02 |
| 20d | 2,411 | +2.47% | +46.95% | long | +1.81% | 32 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 2,273 | +4.84% | +48.26% | long | +4.48% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 252d | 2,226 | +19.57% | +53.05% | long | +19.70% | 33 | +0.16 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_turn_positive methodology for the full audit.