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margin_compression_severe on FIRST SOLAR, INC. (FSLR)
SIC 3674 — Semiconductors & Related Devices · CIK 1274494 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on FSLR
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 2023-02-28 | 2023-02-28 | +15.69% | +26.69% | +24.16% | +17.39% | -9.02% |
| FY2016 | 2017-02-22 | 2017-02-22 | +10.78% | +4.32% | -14.00% | +4.14% | +97.44% |
| FY2012 | 2013-02-27 | 2013-02-27 | -4.44% | -4.22% | +1.44% | +90.75% | +111.50% |
| FY2011 | 2012-02-29 | 2012-02-29 | -5.82% | -20.12% | -22.38% | -55.98% | -23.53% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.