← margin_compression_severe (all companies) · PCYO (all signals) · all methodology
margin_compression_severe on PURE CYCLE CORP (PCYO)
SIC 4941 — Water Supply · CIK 276720 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on PCYO
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 2019-11-12 | 2019-11-12 | +0.86% | +1.98% | +9.29% | +15.91% | -11.69% |
| FY2016 | 2016-10-28 | 2016-10-28 | +0.59% | -8.20% | -4.30% | +0.78% | +52.34% |
| FY2015 | 2015-11-09 | 2015-11-09 | -0.39% | -1.18% | -11.57% | -17.25% | -5.88% |
| FY2014 | 2014-11-17 | 2014-11-17 | +0.75% | +3.18% | -20.00% | -14.77% | -7.10% |
| FY2012 | 2012-12-27 | 2012-12-27 | -1.43% | +10.71% | +25.36% | +83.21% | +121.43% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.