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profit_to_loss on AMERICAN REALTY INVESTORS INC (ARL)
SIC 6510 — Real Estate Operators (No Developers) & Lessors · CIK 1102238 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when a previously-profitable company swings to net loss in the current fiscal year. Often early warning of structural problems.
Every time the signal fired on ARL
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-03-20 | 2025-03-20 | -11.50% | -17.47% | -17.90% | +3.81% | +16.89% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-30 | 2020-03-30 | -2.12% | -25.95% | -16.53% | -13.45% | -9.22% |
| FY2015 | 2016-03-30 | 2016-03-30 | -2.65% | -4.17% | -6.25% | +9.85% | +42.42% |
| FY2012 | 2013-04-08 | 2013-04-08 | +7.69% | -1.28% | +4.62% | +22.31% | +153.85% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 3,667 | -0.22% | +42.21% | short | -0.13% | 35 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 3,667 | +0.28% | +43.50% | short | -0.21% | 36 | -0.01 |
| 20d | 3,616 | +0.23% | +44.16% | short | +0.79% | 40 | +0.04 |
| 60d | 3,386 | +4.37% | +49.00% | short | -3.72% | 51 | -0.06 |
| 252d | 3,297 | +20.41% | +51.05% | short | -17.43% | 102 | -0.13 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See profit_to_loss methodology for the full audit.