fcf_turn_positive
dollar=weak_usd
μ20d +6.78%
hit 51%
r/σ +0.16
n=420
Macro Opportunities
Live FRED regime → conditional-alpha signals → recent ticker triggers.
Current macro fingerprint
VIX 18.4 · 10y-2y +0.46 · oil 60d +11% · EUR/USD 60d +2.9% · HY OAS 2.79%
Long candidates
dividend_initiation
oil=rising
μ20d +1.61%
hit 53%
r/σ +0.15
n=196
dividend_initiation
dollar=weak_usd
μ20d +1.48%
hit 56%
r/σ +0.14
n=78
accruals_quality_low
dollar=weak_usd
μ20d +5.24%
hit 48%
r/σ +0.12
n=157
zombie_alert
oil=rising
μ20d +1.91%
hit 51%
r/σ +0.10
n=487
profit_to_loss
dollar=weak_usd
μ20d +4.69%
hit 45%
r/σ +0.10
n=673
zombie_alert
dollar=weak_usd
μ20d +2.76%
hit 49%
r/σ +0.10
n=162
fcf_turn_negative
dollar=weak_usd
μ20d +4.49%
hit 43%
r/σ +0.09
n=449
margin_compression_severe
dollar=weak_usd
μ20d +6.68%
hit 40%
r/σ +0.09
n=522
beneish_m_score_high
dollar=weak_usd
μ20d +2.73%
hit 47%
r/σ +0.07
n=551
Short candidates
capex_spike
vix_curve=midvix_flat
μ20d -7.65%
hit 30%
r/σ -0.33
n=287
zombie_alert
vix_curve=midvix_flat
μ20d -5.63%
hit 24%
r/σ -0.31
n=122
capex_spike
curve=flat
μ20d -4.60%
hit 39%
r/σ -0.20
n=674
fcf_turn_negative
vix_curve=midvix_flat
μ20d -4.38%
hit 32%
r/σ -0.20
n=321
positive_eps_streak
vix_curve=midvix_flat
μ20d -4.31%
hit 36%
r/σ -0.17
n=2,459
zombie_alert
curve=flat
μ20d -3.92%
hit 34%
r/σ -0.17
n=309
dividend_initiation
curve=flat
μ20d -3.23%
hit 40%
r/σ -0.17
n=116
fcf_turn_negative
hyspread=tight
μ20d -3.50%
hit 37%
r/σ -0.16
n=470
fcf_turn_negative
curve=flat
μ20d -3.38%
hit 37%
r/σ -0.16
n=700
accruals_quality_low
hyspread=tight
μ20d -3.10%
hit 40%
r/σ -0.13
n=176
Sector × metric macro sensitivities
Strongest coefficients from our (sector × metric) growth regression on
five macro factors. β = +0.10 means a 1σ move in the factor
moves trailing fundamental growth ~10pct points (in log terms).
| Sector | Metric | Strongest β | n | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wholesale | operating_cf | βhyspread = +0.276 | 200 | 0.085 |
| agriculture | cash | βhyspread = -0.231 | 97 | 0.029 |
| construction | operating_cf | βhyspread = +0.228 | 128 | 0.071 |
| construction | cash | βhyspread = +0.193 | 162 | 0.040 |
| finance_real_estate | net_income | βhyspread = -0.191 | 2,175 | 0.044 |
| construction | operating_income | βhyspread = -0.172 | 90 | 0.048 |
| wholesale | operating_income | βdollar = +0.166 | 198 | 0.045 |
| mining | net_income | βcurve = +0.152 | 279 | 0.009 |
| mining | cash | βhyspread = -0.151 | 652 | 0.018 |
| services | net_income | βhyspread = -0.147 | 905 | 0.014 |
| mining | operating_income | βoil = +0.126 | 259 | 0.008 |
| mining | total_assets | βdollar = +0.124 | 688 | 0.014 |
| agriculture | revenue | βhyspread = -0.119 | 87 | 0.038 |
| manufacturing | operating_cf | βhyspread = +0.114 | 2,291 | 0.023 |
| mining | equity | βdollar = +0.113 | 515 | 0.018 |
Refreshed nightly via refresh/refresh_all.sh. Built from
signal_macro_calibration.parquet (311 rows, 12 signals × 7 regime
kinds) + forecast_macro_coefs.parquet (60 sector-metric
rows). Conditional-alpha rows require n_events ≥ 50.
Not investment advice.